A ‘red zone’, encompassing 11 municipalities where SARS-CoV-2 infection was endemic, was instituted on 22 February 2020, and put on lockdown to contain the emerging threat. After the first indigenous case on 21 February 2020 in Lodi province, several suspect cases (initially epidemiologically linked) began to emerge in the south and southwest territory of Lombardy 6. The World Health Organisation report dated 5 April 2020 reported 1,133,758 total cases and 62,784 deaths worldwide 4. Despite these measures, a COVID-19 pandemic ensued in the following months. Our results demonstrate that restrictive social-distancing measures will need to be combined with widespread testing and contact tracing to end the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.Īfter a novel strain of coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, was identified in Wuhan (Hubei), China 1, 2, an exponentially growing number of patients in mainland China were diagnosed with COVID-19, prompting Chinese authorities to introduce radical measures to contain the outbreak 3. We compare simulation results with real data on the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy, and we model possible scenarios of implementation of countermeasures. This delineation also helps to explain misperceptions of the case fatality rate and of the epidemic spread. The distinction between diagnosed and non-diagnosed individuals is important because the former are typically isolated and hence less likely to spread the infection. Our SIDARTHE model discriminates between infected individuals depending on whether they have been diagnosed and on the severity of their symptoms. The model considers eight stages of infection: susceptible (S), infected (I), diagnosed (D), ailing (A), recognized (R), threatened (T), healed (H) and extinct (E), collectively termed SIDARTHE. We propose a new model that predicts the course of the epidemic to help plan an effective control strategy. Ending the global SARS-CoV-2 pandemic requires implementation of multiple population-wide strategies, including social distancing, testing and contact tracing. In Italy, 128,948 confirmed cases and 15,887 deaths of people who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 were registered as of 5 April 2020.
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